SOFTIES CHICAGO FIRESIDE BOWL SERIES

Perhaps the series of pretty decisive results in 2004,20 had made people forget that this problem existed. The anecdotal evidence that Nemonowan cites about 2016 seems to be swinging very much the other way this time - the stories seem to all be about Biden signs in places that had rarely seen Democratic Party signs before (and also about how people had been trying to tear them down, which is also a signifier of mood shifts.) Yes, 2016 was a coinflip election which caught a lot of people by surprise (which is odd, considering what happened in 2000. When Beto O'Rourke came so close to winning Texas in 2018, it was clear that something was changing - and it doesn't look as though the momentum has died away there. I tend to think that the 2018 results provide a pretty good guide to what's likely to happen I don't think the 'blue wave' has come close to subsiding yet. I anticipate the John Lewis Memorial VRA II being signed next January, after a 'we don't negotiate with terrorists' abolition of the filibuster in the Senate and a 'go ahead, make my day' message to the Supremes about trying to defang it. The danger is that the D Party takes the trifecta and doesn't use the resulting power to cripple the R Party until it either reforms itself to be able to win elections by appealing to a majority or disintegrates entirely. Trump's only real hope now is for a naked coup, with the Supremes barfing out some kind of word salad about an invalid election and Roberts administering the oath to him no matter what, and it's far from clear even that would work.

People have gotten a good hard look at what a Trump Administration actually looks like, and it turns out that the number who are really OK with 'burning it all down' is pretty small. Joe Biden has not been the target of a 20-year nonstop smear campaign. ITT (and it's early yet!): Much misapprehension of the importance to Republican ratfucking operations of the outcome actually being within ratfucking distance.

Softies chicago fireside bowl